Introducing Statistical Inference: Design of a Theoretically and Empirically Based Learning Trajectory

Abstract This paper comprises the results of a design study that aims at developing theoretically and empirically based learning trajectory on statistical inference for 9th-grade students. Based theories informal inference, an 8-step was designed. The consisted two similar four step sequences: (1) experimenting with physical black box, (2) visualizing distributions, (3) examining sampling distributions using simulation software, (4) interpreting to make inferences in real -life contexts. Sequence I included only categorical data II regarded numerical data. implemented intervention among 267 To examine effects students’ understanding we analyzed their posttest after intervention. investigate how stepwise fostered process, worksheets during each were analyzed. showed students who followed scored significantly higher concepts related than comparison group ( n = 217) regular curriculum. Worksheet analysis demonstrated beneficial processes. We conclude ideas repeated box modeling seem fruitful introducing inference. Both invite more advanced follow-up activities, such as hypothesis testing comparing groups. suggests statistics curricula descriptive focus can be transformed inferential focus, anticipate subsequent steps education.